Episode 4 | NFL + turnovers

The best or worst part of a football game... depending on which team you're rooting for. Nikki says it best in the video, "A turnover is a spectacle." Exciting, gut wrenching, or absolutely demoralizing, but is it always catastrophic?

Quantifying turnovers is more nuanced than first glance might suggest. A turnover represents a maximum points swing of 14, if you're team was going to score a touchdown but instead the other team does. More often, it is probably worth fewer points than that (as revealed by the analysis) but the change in odds is actually more striking. This is also wonderfully said by Nikki who pointed out that even after (most) turnovers, the defense still gets a chance at a stop. This reduces their average impact, and means that not all hope is lost.