StatsDetective 6 | The fall of Patrick Mahomes

Sparked by our recent look at Deshaun Watson's career, this video takes a look at how one of the best to ever do it has been steadily declining since his debut season. I can already hear the naysayers jeering so here is the graph to prove it.

All of those downward trends are screaming at us, so why is no one listening? Probably because the dude has been to 4 superbowls and won 3 of them. So why are his regular season statistics telling us he's worse? I think that Patrick knows a secret about football, something that few have figured out thus far: the regular season means nothing.

Obviously, that is not 100% true, the regular season is a necessary means to an end. It is also no secret that Patrick is a well above average regular season quarterback, but not quite as good as he is in the playoffs. I think the Chiefs, as an organization, live by the phrase 'save the best for last'. Patrick certainly turns it up a notch and Andy Reid certainly does as well. The benefits of slow playing a season are numerous. Fewer of your best plays on film, fewer risks taken in terms of injury, the media and league underestimates you, et cetera, et cetera. There are also a few downsides: fewer wins and more close games. However, as long as you are confident that you will make the playoffs, there is a strong argument for coasting as much as possible in the regular season.

The real genius behind Patrick's career is the difference between his regular season and post-season play. he sees an increase in production and a decrease in interception rate, a feat nearly impossible in football. As with most media coverage of Mahomes, this video turned into a 'Wow look how amazing he is' pretty quickly, but it is impossible not to feel that way. He is always one step ahead of the rest of the league and it shows.

The video goes into a little more detail and includes some more graphs and numbers, but the thesis is clear: be better in the playoffs and you WILL have success. At some point, I will have to do an analysis of the regular vs post-season split to see if there is something there.